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HURRICANE GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE AUG 08 2000
 
GILMA SHOWS A COLD OVERCAST WITH SIGNS OF BANDING.  AN 0948Z TRMM
OVERPASS DID NOT SHOW THE PRESENCE OF AN EYE.  HOWEVER...THE
SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS IMPROVED SINCE THAT TIME.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 77 KT AND 65 KT...SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/8.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
MID/UPPER RIDGE NORTH OF GILMA...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG
130W N OF 25N.  A LOW LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES NORTH AND NORTH OF THE
STORM.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD FAVOR A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...
FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD MOTION AS GILMA WEAKENS OVER COLD WATER. 
DYNAMIC FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...WHICH IS AT
ABOUT A 30 DEGREE ANGLE TO HOW THE STORM IS MOVING.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
NHC91 AND CLIPER.

GILMA SHOWS FAIR TO GOOD OUTFLOW...BUT IT IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO
COOLER WATER.  THUS IT SHOULD PEAK IN INTENSITY TODAY AND STEADILY
WEAKEN THEREAFTER.  ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO...
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES ALONG WITH IT ALSO.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/1500Z 19.1N 118.8W    70 KTS
12HR VT     09/0000Z 19.5N 120.1W    70 KTS
24HR VT     09/1200Z 20.0N 121.7W    65 KTS
36HR VT     10/0000Z 20.5N 123.4W    55 KTS
48HR VT     10/1200Z 21.0N 125.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     11/1200Z 21.0N 129.5W    40 KTS
 
 
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