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HURRICANE GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE AUG 08 2000
 
GILMA HAS SHOWN AN INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE IN INFRARED IMAGERY THE
PAST 12 HOURS AND ALSO IN RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY. OBJECTIVE DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITIES RANGE FROM 75 TO 85 KT...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY TAFB INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 75 KT. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ONLY RAISED TO 65 KT...MINIMAL HURRICANE...BASED ON THE
RAGGED 30 NM DIAMETER EYE SEEN IN SSMI AND TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGERY.

INITIAL MOTION IS 285/08. GILMA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTERACT
WITH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL TO THE NORTH WHICH
WILL SLOWLY TURN THE SYSTEM MORE WESTWARD BY 36 HOURS. THIS TRACK
SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY ALL OF OUR FORECAST GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE
OFFICIAL TRACKS REMIANS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MODEL
ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE CLIPER MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK.

THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS FAIR TO GOOD IN ALL
QUADRANTS AND THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE
CIRCULAR OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. AS A RESULT...GILMA MAY INTENSIFY A
LITTLE BIT MORE BEFORE REACHING COOLER WATER.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/0900Z 19.0N 117.9W    65 KTS
12HR VT     08/1800Z 19.3N 119.1W    70 KTS
24HR VT     09/0600Z 19.9N 120.7W    65 KTS
36HR VT     09/1800Z 20.4N 122.2W    55 KTS
48HR VT     10/0600Z 20.7N 124.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     11/0600Z 20.5N 128.0W    45 KTS
 
 
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