HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON AUG 07 2000
 
GILMA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE MORNING...WITH
STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 65 KT AND 55
KT...SO THE CYCLONE REMAINS A 60 KT TROPICAL STORM.

THE CENTER IS A LITTLE HARD TO FIND...AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE
MOTION IS 285/10.  A DEEP LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF GILMA SHOULD KEEP THE
STORM ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR 24-36 HR.  THE UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES AFTER THAT TIME...AS LARGE-SCALE MODEL INDICATE A
WEAKENING OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT COULD ALLOW A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION.  SINCE THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STAY STRONG...A
WESTWARD TURN IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COLDER
WATER AND WEAKENS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LATTER...MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL SCENARIO.

GILMA MAY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE MOVING OVER COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN 12-24 HR.  SLOW AND STEADY WEAKENING IS
LIKELY AFTER THAT TIME.  SHOULD GILMA MOVE MORE NORTHWEST THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/1500Z 18.7N 115.6W    60 KTS
12HR VT     08/0000Z 19.2N 117.1W    65 KTS
24HR VT     08/1200Z 19.9N 119.1W    70 KTS
36HR VT     09/0000Z 20.3N 121.0W    65 KTS
48HR VT     09/1200Z 20.5N 122.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     10/1200Z 20.5N 125.5W    50 KTS
 
 
NNNN