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TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN AUG 06 2000
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW BANDING FEATURES AND DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER BUT EASTERLY SHEAR IS KEEPING THE OUTFLOW RESTRICTED TO THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  GILMA HAS ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS OVER WARMER
WATERS TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.  THEREAFTER IT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN.

GILMA IS MOVING 290/10 AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WESTWARD
ACROSS THE PACIFIC. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS EITHER MAINTAIN OR
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS PATTERN WOULD STEER GILMA ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/2100Z 17.7N 112.6W    45 KTS
12HR VT     07/0600Z 18.2N 114.0W    55 KTS
24HR VT     07/1800Z 19.0N 115.7W    65 KTS
36HR VT     08/0600Z 19.7N 117.5W    65 KTS
48HR VT     08/1800Z 20.5N 119.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     09/1800Z 21.0N 123.0W    45 KTS
 
 
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