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TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN AUG 06 2000

FINALLY...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...
APPEARS TO BE UNDER THE LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AND THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED.  THEREFORE...GILMA...ONCE
AGAIN...IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM. A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
IS INDICATED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE GILMA MAY
ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS. 
 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING 285/08 AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF MID-
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
WESTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ERODE THE
WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE. THIS PATTERN WOULD STEER GILMA ON A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS.

FORECASTER AVILA
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/1500Z 17.1N 111.4W    35 KTS
12HR VT     07/0000Z 17.5N 112.7W    45 KTS
24HR VT     07/1200Z 18.0N 114.5W    55 KTS
36HR VT     08/0000Z 19.0N 116.5W    60 KTS
48HR VT     08/1200Z 19.5N 118.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     09/1200Z 20.5N 122.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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