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TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN AUG 06 2000
 
GILMA HAS DEVELOPED A MASSIVE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS OF THE TYPE
USUALLY SEEN IN MAJOR HURRICANES...AND THERE IS EVIDENCE OF BANDING
AND ROTATION IN THE CONVECTIVE MASS.  THAT BEING SAID...TRMM AND
SSM/I OVERPASSES NEAR 0230Z AND 0330Z SUGGESTED THE CENTER WAS STILL
BROAD AND EAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT...30 KT...AND 30 KT FROM AFWA...TAFB...AND SAB.
THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN AT 30 KT IN THIS PACKAGE.

THE CENTER IS STILL DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
THE MOTION REMAINS 290/10.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN EITHER THE
SYNOPTIC SITUATION OR THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THERE ARE TWO POSSIBLE COMPLICATIONS TO THE
TRACK FORECAST.  FIRST...THE CENTER MIGHT NEED TO BE RE-LOCATED WHEN
DAYLIGHT COMES.  SECOND...THE AVN AND UKMET MODELS SUGGEST THAT
GILMA MAY INTERACT WITH FABIO LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THAT
WILL BE DEALT WITH IF AND WHEN IT HAPPENS.

WHILE GILMA MAINTAINS GOOD OUTFLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ARE UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW AND SHEARING THE CYCLONE.  THIS MAY BE
SLOWING INTENSIFICATION...BUT IS CERTAINLY NOT SLOWING THE
CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CHANGED ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE...CALLING FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL 48 HR FOLLOWED A
STEADY STATE AS GILMA MOVES INTO COOLER WATER.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/0900Z 16.8N 111.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     06/1800Z 17.3N 112.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     07/0600Z 17.9N 114.3W    40 KTS
36HR VT     07/1800Z 18.6N 116.2W    50 KTS
48HR VT     08/0600Z 19.0N 118.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     09/0600Z 20.0N 121.5W    60 KTS
 
 
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