[NCEP Logo] HOME PRODUCTS FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT AUG 05 2000
 
GILMA REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED WITH A CENTER THAT IS VERY DIFFICULT
TO LOCATE.  WHILE THERE IS A LOT OF STRONG CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OCCURRING...IT IS DISPLACED NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER IN A
PATTERN THAT IS NEITHER A BAND NOR A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. 
THUS...THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN 30 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION IS 290/10.  THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE
NORTH OF GILMA SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...EVEN THOUGH THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN
SOME AFTER 48 HR.  ALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDN WHICH CALLS FOR A MORE NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...EXCEPT A LITTLE FASTER TO MATCH THE CURRENT MOTION
ESTIMATE.

GILMA IS SHOWING GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT TO THE EAST...
WHERE IT IS FAIR TO POOR.  THUS...THE LACK OF INTENSIFICATION IS
PUZZLING.  SINCE CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE
ONE CHANGE IS AT 72 HR...WHERE THE CYCLONE IS NOW FORECAST TO BE
MOVING INTO COOLER WATER.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/0300Z 16.5N 109.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     06/1200Z 17.0N 111.1W    30 KTS
24HR VT     07/0000Z 17.5N 113.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     07/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     08/0000Z 18.5N 117.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     09/0000Z 19.5N 120.5W    60 KTS
 
 
NNNN


Problems?