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TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT AUG 05 2000
 
VISIBLE IMAGERY TODAY HAS NOT DONE MUCH TO HELP DEFINE THE LOCATION
OF GILMA...AND IN FACT...MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL VORTICES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE MOST PROMINENT AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION.  THERE IS LIKELY NOT ANY WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NO HIGHER
THAN 30 KT.  GIVEN THESE...AND THE POOR ORGANIZATION...GILMA IS
BEING DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION WITH THIS ADVISORY.  IF THE
EASTERLY SHEAR LESSENS...AS SUGGESTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS... THE
WATER WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT REINTENSIFICATION.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE SHIPS
INTENSITY GUIDANCE WHICH FORECASTS 69 KT IN 72 HOURS.

WITH NO WELL-DEFINED CENTER...THE INITIAL LOCATION AND MOTION ARE
HARD TO DETERMINE...BUT THE BROAD LARGER-SCALE CIRCULATION HAS BEEN
RELOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THERE HAS BEEN A
SUBTLE CHANGE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH NO LONGER BEND THE TRACK
TO THE LEFT AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS IS APPARENTLY
IN RESPONSE TO A FORECAST WEAKNESS IN THE 500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/2100Z 15.9N 108.1W    30 KTS
12HR VT     06/0600Z 16.4N 109.3W    30 KTS
24HR VT     06/1800Z 16.9N 110.9W    40 KTS
36HR VT     07/0600Z 17.4N 112.9W    50 KTS
48HR VT     07/1800Z 18.0N 115.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     08/1800Z 19.0N 118.5W    65 KTS
 
 
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