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TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT AUG 05 2000
 
THE CENTER OF GILMA IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...EVEN ON THE FIRST
COUPLE OF VISIBLE IMAGES...WHICH IMPARTS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TO
ALL ASPECTS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  CONVECTION IS ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH...AND THERE MAY BE MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL CENTERS.  A
QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 12Z PLACED THE CENTER OVER 60 MILES NORTH OF
WHERE I HAVE IT.

GIVEN THE ABOVE...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AS 290/10.  THIS
PACKAGE IS BASED LARGELY ON CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR.  IF THE QUIKSCAT IS RIGHT...IT
WILL BE NECESSARY TO ADJUST BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS
LATER TODAY.  SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS GILMA TO 79 KT BY 72
HOURS...AND AN EXPERIMENTAL MODEL FROM MIT SUGGESTS 80 KT.  THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE CLOSELY...ALTHOUGH
A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION WOULD TEND TO LIMIT THIS STRENGTHENING.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/1500Z 15.0N 108.0W    35 KTS
12HR VT     06/0000Z 15.5N 109.5W    40 KTS
24HR VT     06/1200Z 16.2N 111.4W    50 KTS
36HR VT     07/0000Z 16.4N 113.6W    65 KTS
48HR VT     07/1200Z 16.5N 115.5W    70 KTS
72HR VT     08/1200Z 16.5N 119.0W    80 KTS
 
 
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