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TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT AUG 05 2000

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E HAS CONTINUED TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED
OVERNIGHT...AND HAS INTENSIFIED INTO TROPICAL STORM GILMA BASED ON A
SMALL CDO FEATURE NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER AND SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 KT FROM SAB AT 0600Z.

INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12. TROPICAL STORM GILMA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN TURN MORE TOWARD THE
WEST AFTER THAT AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL OF OUR FORECAST GUIDANCE AND
WE ARE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE GFDL AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. 

A STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF ONE DVORAK T-NUMBER PER DAY IS EXPECTED
THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TREND AFTER THAT. GILMA IS
OVER 28C SST WATER AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS
...WHICH ALSO FAVORS STEADY INTENSIFICATION.
 
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/0900Z 14.9N 107.3W    35 KTS
12HR VT     05/1800Z 15.7N 109.0W    45 KTS
24HR VT     06/0600Z 16.5N 110.9W    55 KTS
36HR VT     06/1800Z 16.9N 113.0W    65 KTS
48HR VT     07/0600Z 17.0N 115.0W    75 KTS
72HR VT     08/0600Z 17.0N 117.5W    85 KTS
 
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