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TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT AUG 05 2000
 
FABIO IS PRODUCING INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...JUST ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS.  THE AVN SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR MAY
LESSEN OVER TIME.  IRRESPECTIVE OF THE LONG-TERM SHEAR TENDENCY...
FABIO IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...WHICH WOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE THE WATER TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CYCLONE. 
THEREFORE...MODEST STRENGTHING IS FORECAST IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE SHIPS AND MIT INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN DIRECTION...WEST TO WEST-
SOUTHWEST.  THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS ARE CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN
THE BAROTROPIC MODELS AND THE NAVY NOGAPS.  THE AVN SUGGESTS A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NORTH OF FABIO LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
CONSISTENT WITH A SLOWER MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A LITTLE
SLOWER.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/2100Z 16.0N 122.9W    35 KTS
12HR VT     06/0600Z 15.7N 124.3W    35 KTS
24HR VT     06/1800Z 15.3N 126.1W    40 KTS
36HR VT     07/0600Z 14.9N 127.8W    45 KTS
48HR VT     07/1800Z 14.5N 129.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     08/1800Z 14.0N 132.5W    55 KTS
 
 
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