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TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT AUG 05 2000
 
FABIO CONTINUES TO SUFFER FROM STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...WITH
ONLY A LIMITED AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE A CONSENSUS 35 KT...AND SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO THIS VALUE WITH THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 265/9.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE OR SYNOPTIC REASONING SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY...BUT THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE
SOUTHWARD BASED ON WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE BEGINNING OF THE
ANTICIPATED LEFTWARD MOTION.  

THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR MAY RELAX NEAR THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO WE ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MODEST
RESTRENGTHENING.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/1500Z 16.4N 122.0W    35 KTS
12HR VT     06/0000Z 16.1N 123.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     06/1200Z 15.9N 125.3W    40 KTS
36HR VT     07/0000Z 15.7N 127.4W    40 KTS
48HR VT     07/1200Z 15.5N 129.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     08/1200Z 14.5N 133.5W    50 KTS
 
 
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