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TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI AUG 04 2000
 
EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE CONVECTION
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF FABIO THIS EVENING.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 45 KT...45 KT...AND 35
KT...SO THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE LOWERED TO 40 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/9.  A STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE CONTINUES
NORTH OF FABIO...SO THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  ALL TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SOUTHWESTWARD TURN
MAY OCCUR BY 72 HR...WITH THE BAMM AND BAMD TAKING FABIO TO 13N. 
THIS FORECAST COULD BE DUE EITHER TO A STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE OR
TO INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E TO THE EAST.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT FULL FOLLOW THIS UNCLIMATOLOGICAL
GUIDANCE...BUT WILL SHOW FABIO LOSING A LITTLE LATITUDE BY 72 HR.

CONVECTIVE BURSTS ASSOCIATED WITH FABIO ARE STILL STRONG AND CLOSE
TO THE CENTER.  LARGE SCALE MODELS SUGGESTS THE CURRENT SHEAR MAY
DECREASE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS...COMBINED WITH A
POSSIBLE SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD WARMER WATER...COULD OPEN THE
DOOR FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  ON THE OTHER HAND...A WESTWARD
TRACK AT THE CURRENT LATITUDE WOULD MOVE THE CYCLONE OF MARGINAL
SSTS...WHICH WOULD HAMPER STRENGTHENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST
COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES...CALLING FOR SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION AFTER 36 HR.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/0300Z 16.7N 120.1W    40 KTS
12HR VT     05/1200Z 16.7N 121.5W    40 KTS
24HR VT     06/0000Z 16.6N 123.6W    40 KTS
36HR VT     06/1200Z 16.6N 125.7W    40 KTS
48HR VT     07/0000Z 16.5N 127.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     08/0000Z 16.0N 131.5W    45 KTS
 
 
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