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TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT JUL 29 2000
 
THE CENTER OF EMILIA HAS BECOME HARD TO FIND...AS THE POSITIONS FROM
TAFB AND SAB ARE 60 NM APART.  WHILE ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY PRESENT...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...
AND AFWA ARE ALL 35 KT.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL REMAIN 35 KT ON THIS
ADVISORY...PARTLY DUE TO THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND PARTLY DUE TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP DURING THE NORMAL
DIURNAL MAXIMUM.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMPLE.  EMILIA IS MOVING 275/10 SOUTH
OF A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE.  THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL
THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES.  ONE POSSIBLE ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS THAT
STRONG LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NORTH AND
WEST OF EMILIA COULD PUSH IT SOUTH OF WEST.  THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
THIS HAPPENING SO FAR...AND NONE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS MOVE
THE CYCLONE S OF 20N.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO FAIRLY SIMPLE.  EMILIA IS TRACKING
INTO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER.  ADDITIONALLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
OVER AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE...A RATHER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. 
THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION IN
36-48 HR OR LESS.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/0900Z 20.3N 118.4W    35 KTS
12HR VT     29/1800Z 20.4N 120.1W    30 KTS
24HR VT     30/0600Z 20.5N 122.2W    25 KTS
36HR VT     30/1800Z 20.5N 124.3W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     31/0600Z...DISSIPATED 
 
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