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TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI JUL 28 2000

EMILIA HAS BEEN WEAKENING RAPIDLY DURING PAST FEW HOURS. THE LOW
LEVEL-CENTER HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE CONVECTION WHICH IS
LOCATED TO ITS NORTHWEST.  EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER
WHICH INDEED ARE ABOUT 1.5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE AREA.  

EMILIA IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 11 KNOTS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AND BECAUSE THE HIGH TO THE NORTH IS NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE SAME TRACK. 
SOME INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION MAY OCCUR BEFORE DISSIPATION
IN A DAY OR TWO.  
 
RESTRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR ONLY IF...UNEXPECTEDLY...EMILIA MOVES
WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARD WARM WATERS.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/0300Z 20.0N 117.5W    35 KTS
12HR VT     29/1200Z 20.0N 119.5W    30 KTS
24HR VT     30/0000Z 20.0N 121.5W    25 KTS
36HR VT     30/1200Z 20.0N 123.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     31/0000Z 20.0N 124.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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