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TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI JUL 28 2000
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF EMILIA...BUT
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS KEPT THE CONVECTION FROM WRAPPING AROUND THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 50 KT BASED ON
THE NEW CONVECTIVE BURST AND IS CONSISTENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45 TO 55 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY.

THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.
EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST
DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE WEAKENING. AFTERWARDS...
EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED MORE TO THE WEST AS THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER DECOUPLES FROM THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OWING TO
THE SYSTEM PASSING OVER VERY COLD WATER. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE
TO THE GFDL THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN FOLLOWS THE MEDIUM AND SHALLOW
BAM MODELS AFTER THAT.

ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY REDEVLOPED...THE GENERAL TREND
SHOULD BE FOR AN OVERALL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AS
EMILIA PASSES OVER MUCH COLDER...21C TO 22C... WATER AFTER 24 HOURS.
THE SHIPS MODEL DISSIPATES EMILIA AFTER 48 HOURS AND THE GFDL LOSES
THE SYSTEM AFTER 24 HOURS. WITH GOOD EAST TO SOUTHEAST WARM MOIST
INFLOW CONTINUING...THE CONVECTION MAY HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER THAN
THE MODELS ARE INDICATING AND WE HAVE KEPT THE INTENSITIES SLIGHTLY
HIGHER.
 
FORECASTER STEWART/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/1500Z 20.3N 114.9W    50 KTS
12HR VT     29/0000Z 21.0N 116.1W    45 KTS
24HR VT     29/1200Z 21.6N 118.2W    40 KTS
36HR VT     30/0000Z 22.0N 120.4W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     30/1200Z 22.0N 122.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     31/1200Z 22.0N 126.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATED

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