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TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU JUL 27 2000
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  IN
FACT...IT LOOKS LESS ORGANIZED WITH A LIMITED AMOUNT OF DEEP
CONVECTION THIS TIME.  EMILIA IS ABOUT TO MOVE IN A FEW HOURS OVER
WATERS COOLER THAN 26C SO...THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE BURST COULD BE
THE LAST GASP.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR NO CHANGE IN
INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WEAKENING.  MOST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONES THAT HAVE REACHED THE AREA
NORTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND THIS SEASON HAVE WEAKENED RAPIDLY. 
ANOMALOUS COLD WATERS STILL PREVAIL IN THIS REGION.
 
EMILIA IS MOVING 300/11.  THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY...SO A TURN MORE TO THE WEST IS
INDICATED.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE MODELS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0300Z 19.0N 113.5W    55 KTS
12HR VT     28/1200Z 19.5N 115.0W    55 KTS
24HR VT     29/0000Z 20.0N 117.0W    55 KTS
36HR VT     29/1200Z 20.5N 119.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     30/0000Z 21.0N 121.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     31/0000Z 21.0N 124.5W    45 KTS
 
 
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