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TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU JUL 27 2000
 
THERE HAS BEEN AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE ORGANIZATION OF EMILIA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATING THE BEGINNINGS OF AN
EYEWALL.  FOR A TIME THERE WAS A CLEAR SPOT NEAR THE CENTER IN THE
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.  SATELLITE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 50
AND 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 18Z.  ON THIS BASIS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT WITH THIS ADVISORY.

EMILIA ACCELERATED AND IS NOW MOVING 305/12.  THE AVN AND UKMET BOTH
HINT AT A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE THAT
MAY BE INCREASING THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING FLOW.  THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE ACTUALLY SHOWS LESS NET
72 H DISPLACEMENT NOW THAN IT DID 6 HOURS AGO.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK SLOWS THE FORWARD MOTION AFTER 12 HOURS AND IS
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

GIVEN THE MORE RAPID MOTION TODAY...EMILIA WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER
WATER WITHIN 12-24 HOURS.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED UNTIL THEN.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/2100Z 18.6N 112.4W    55 KTS
12HR VT     28/0600Z 19.5N 114.1W    60 KTS
24HR VT     28/1800Z 20.0N 116.0W    60 KTS
36HR VT     29/0600Z 20.3N 118.0W    55 KTS
48HR VT     29/1800Z 20.5N 120.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     30/1800Z 21.0N 124.0W    45 KTS
 
 
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