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TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU JUL 27 2000
 
EMILIA IS STILL NOT MAKING MUCH OF AN IMPRESSION ON IR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN ANOTHER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE PRESUMED CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
45...45...AND 35 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY.  THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  SHEAR IS
LIGHT AND EMILIA SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST 24 HOURS OVER RELATIVELY WARM
WATER...SO SOME SHORT-TERM STRENGTHING IS ANTICIPATED.

THE CENTER REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON IR IMAGERY BUT MAY BE A
LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 305/9.  BOTH THE NCEP AND UKMET GLOBAL MODELS BUILD A 500 MB
RIDGE WESTWARD NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  WITH
THIS PATTERN...A MORE WESTWARD STEERING CURRENT IS LIKELY TO EVOLVE.

IN FACT...THE UKMET DRIVES EMILIA TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 24 HOURS...
BUT A SIMILAR FORECAST YESTERDAY HAS SO FAR FAILED TO VERIFY.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL GUIDANCE.  

IF THE UKMET IS CORRECT AND EMILIA REMAINS SOUTH OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK...THEN THE INTENSITY IS LIKELY TO BE HIGHER THAN
FORECAST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/1500Z 17.6N 111.0W    45 KTS
12HR VT     28/0000Z 18.4N 112.2W    50 KTS
24HR VT     28/1200Z 19.0N 114.0W    60 KTS
36HR VT     29/0000Z 19.6N 116.1W    60 KTS
48HR VT     29/1200Z 20.0N 118.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     30/1200Z 20.0N 123.0W    55 KTS
 
 
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