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TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED JUL 26 2000
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A VERY WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZATION...IN FACT THE PATTERN RESEMBLES A
BANDING TYPE-EYE.  BUT THE CONVECTION IS NEITHER STRONG NOR
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE BROAD CENTER OF CIRCULATION YET.  T-NUMBERS
ARE 2.5+ AND 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB AND ON THIS BASIS...WINDS ARE
INCREASED TO 40 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS LOW AND VERY FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING...EMILIA HAS ONLY 36 HOURS OVER WARM WATERS TO
REACH HURRICANE STATUS.  THEREAFTER...A STEADY STATE FOLLOWED BY A
SLOW WEAKENING IS INDICATED.
 
THE FUTURE INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WHICH
CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN WESTWARD TRACK AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF EMILIA BUILDS WESTWARD.  HOWEVER...THE
RELIABLE UK MODEL ALONG WITH NOGAPS BUILD THE RIDGE STRONGER THAN
THE OTHER MODELS AND TAKE EMILIA ON MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK. IF
THIS TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT...EMILIA WILL BE OVER WARM WATER MUCH
LONGER AND INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 72 HOURS.  AT
THIS TIME...THE PREFERRED OPTION IS TO FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK AND THE AVN MODEL AND NOT THE UK/NOGAPS SOLUTION.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0300Z 16.4N 109.5W    40 KTS
12HR VT     27/1200Z 17.2N 111.0W    45 KTS
24HR VT     28/0000Z 18.0N 112.5W    55 KTS
36HR VT     28/1200Z 18.5N 114.5W    65 KTS
48HR VT     29/0000Z 19.0N 116.5W    65 KTS
72HR VT     30/0000Z 19.5N 121.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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