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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED JUL 26 2000

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 540 MILES SOUTH OF CABO SAN
LUCAS HAS ORGANIZED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E. ALTHOUGH DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BECOME LESS CENTRALIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...THE
OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED AND SUPPORTS AT LEAST
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INTENSITY. A 0748Z TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED A
TIGHT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE 85H CHANNEL LOCATED ABOUT 60NM
NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AS SEEN IN THE 37H CHANNEL. SUBJECTIVE
FIXES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT THE MORE SOUTHERLY POSITION.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.0...30 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB
SUPPORT STARTING THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

INITIAL MOTION IS 295/09. TD SEVEN-E IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 36 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN
MORE TOWARD THE WEST AFTERWARDS. THIS SCENARIO IS CLOSE TO THE
CLIPER AND BAMD MODELS. THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN INDICATES A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 30N LATITUDE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE DEEP EASTERLIES STEERING FLOW.

LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A LARGE CURVED BAND
FEATURE MAINLY IN THE WEST SEMICIRCLE WHICH SUGGESTS THAT TD SEVEN-E
IS NOT FAR FROM BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TAKES THE INTENSITY UP AT THE RATE OF ONE T-NUMBER PER 24 HOURS
THROUGH 36 HOURS WITH A GENERAL LEVELING OFF IN INTENSITY AFTERWARDS
AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER 26C OR COOLER SSTS. THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT
RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT THE SYSTEM
REACHING MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/1500Z 15.5N 108.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     27/0000Z 16.2N 109.4W    40 KTS
24HR VT     27/1200Z 17.1N 111.1W    50 KTS
36HR VT     28/0000Z 17.9N 112.9W    60 KTS
48HR VT     28/1200Z 18.5N 115.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     29/1200Z 19.5N 119.5W    65 KTS
 
 
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