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WTPA41 PHFO 011500
TCDCP1
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
5 AM HST TUE AUG 01 2000

...DANIEL CONTINUING TO WEAKEN NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...

THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF DANIEL IS ABOUT 130 SM
NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU. THE NEAREST DEEP CONVECTION IS 100 MILES TO
THE NORTH OF THIS CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS FORECAST IN SLOWLY WEAKENING THE MAX WINDS
FROM THE CURRENT 45 MPH ESTIMATE...BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK
T2.5/3.0 FROM THE HONOLULU SATELLITE UNIT. THE MODEL TRACKS ARE
FAIRLY TIGHTLY GROUPED TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE GFDL AND CLIPPER WHICH PREFER A MORE WEST NORTHWEST DIRECTION.
THE CUURENT FORECAST GRADUALLY CURVES THE TRACK MORE NORTHWEST
CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE BAM SHALLOW AND TAKING DANIEL AROUND THE
SOUTHWEST END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.   

LARSON
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/1500Z 22.6N 156.4W    45 KTS
12HR VT     02/0000Z 23.0N 157.6W    40 KTS
24HR VT     02/1200Z 23.7N 159.5W    35 KTS
36HR VT     03/0000Z 24.5N 161.5W    30 KTS
48HR VT     03/1200Z 25.5N 163.8W    30 KTS
72HR VT     04/1200Z 28.6N 169.6W    25 KTS