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WTPA41 PHFO 010900
TCDCP1
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
11 PM HST MON JUL 31 2000
 
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL IS UNDERGOING YET ANOTHER WEAKENING PHASE. THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS AGAIN EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE COLD OVERCAST WHICH DOES NOT NOW APPEAR TO CONTAIN ACTIVE
CONVECTION. ANY EYEWALL THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TO DAY IS NOW GONE
AND SHEARING HAS RESUMED AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR SLOW
WEAKENING. THE LATEST RECON AT 0600 UTC CONFIRMED THIS WEAKENING
WITH AN EXTRAPOLATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB AND MAX FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS OF ONLY 32 KT. AFTER AN APPARENT NORTHWARD MOVEMENT
DANIEL IS BACK ON A MORE NORTHWEST TRACK AT 10 KT THAT WILL MOVE IT
PARALLEL TO BUT OFFSHORE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE MODEL FORECAST
TRACKS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 72
HOURS.  

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT TROPICAL SYSTEMS CAN BE ERRATIC IN THEIR
MOVEMENT. RESIDENTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANIEL UNTIL IT IS FAR FROM THE
ISLANDS.
 
LARSON
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/0900Z 22.8N 155.7W    50 KTS
12HR VT     01/1800Z 23.6N 157.1W    45 KTS
24HR VT     02/0600Z 24.5N 159.3W    40 KTS
36HR VT     02/1800Z 25.9N 161.7W    40 KTS
48HR VT     03/0600Z 27.4N 164.6W    40 KTS
72HR VT     04/0600Z 31.1N 170.1W    35 KTS