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WTPA41 PHFO 312100
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
11 AM HST MON JUL 31 2000
 
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
MAUI COUNTY AND FOR THE ISLAND OF OAHU INCLUDING THE CITY OF
HONOLULU...
 
...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KAUAI...

STRONG DEEP CONVECTION HAS ONCE AGAIN FLARED UP ON THE NORTHEASTERN
FLANK OF DANIEL THIS MORNING...WITH AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE FINDING
WINDS OF HURRICANE STRENGTH OR GREATER AT THE 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL ON
THE WAY OUT OF THE STORM TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS INDICATES SOME
INTENSIFICATION IN THE PAST SIX HOURS AND THE ADVISORY REFLECTS THIS
TREND. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF DANIEL HAS ONCE AGAIN
MOVED BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL DENSE CIRRUS OVERCAST...IN LINE WITH
THE INDICATED STRENGTHENING. WITH CONVECTION APPEARING TO WRAP
AROUND TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR THE CENTER...THE INCREASE IN STRENGTH
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED THROUGH 12 HOURS...AND WEAKENING SLOWED
THEREAFTER IN LIGHT OF THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
WEST OF KAUAI. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE OUTFLOW AND
ENHANCE CONVECTION AND SLOW THE FORWARD MOVEMENT OF DANIEL...BUT
ALSO INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHEARING THE STORM WITH TIME.
 
THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN MAINTAINED OUT THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT
FORWARD MOTION HAS BEEN SLOWED. BEYOND 48 HOURS THE TRACK HAS BEEN
BROUGHT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD IN LINE WITH THE LIKELY SHEARING OF THE
SURFACE CENTER FROM THE UPPER LEVEL IN TIME. THE CENTER IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO THE NORTH OF OAHU AND KAUAI AND REMAINS
CLOSE TO MIDWAY BETWEEN THE BETA ADVECTION MODEL-SHALLOW AND THE
GFDL MODEL. 
 
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE FORECAST TRACKS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE
ALWAYS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS SUBTLE INFLUENCES CHANGE THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE STORM. THEREFORE MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI AND
OAHU REMAIN UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND KAUAI REMAINS UNDER A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH.
 
RESIDENTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF DANIEL. DANIEL COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY
AND TUESDAY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD PAST THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
 
FARRELL
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/2100Z 21.3N 154.1W    55 KTS
12HR VT     01/0600Z 21.5N 155.2W    55 KTS
24HR VT     01/1800Z 21.9N 157.0W    50 KTS
36HR VT     02/0600Z 22.3N 159.1W    50 KTS
48HR VT     02/1800Z 22.8N 161.4W    45 KTS
72HR VT     03/1800Z 24.2N 166.4W    45 KTS