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WTPA41 PHFO 311500
TCDCP1
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
5 AM HST MON JUL 31 2000
 
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
MAUI COUNTY AND FOR THE ISLAND OF OAHU INCLUDING THE CITY OF
HONOLULU...
 
...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KAUAI...
 
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF DANIEL REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF ACTIVE BUT ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. SHEARING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND THE INTENSITY OF
DANIEL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN CONFORMITY WITH MOST OF
THE MODELS. THE MOTION OF DANIEL SLOWED FURTHER AS IT MADE A JOG
TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST THE PAST 6 HOURS BUT IT NOW APPEARS TO BE
RESUMING THE PAST WEST NORTHWEST TRACK. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ONLY
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH THE CENTER PASSING JUST TO
THE NORTH OF OF OAHU AND KAUAI. THIS TRACK IS MIDWAY BETWEEN THE
GFDL AND BAM SHALLOW MODELS. THE FORWARD SPEED IS INCREASED WITH
TIME IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG
35N.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE FORECAST TRACKS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE
ALWAYS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS SUBTLE INFLUENCES CHANGE THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE STORM. THEREFORE MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI AND
OAHU REMAIN UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND KAUAI REMAINS UNDER A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH.
 
RESIDENTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF DANIEL. DANIEL COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY
AND TUESDAY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD PAST THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
 
LARSON
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/1500Z 21.0N 153.4W    45 KTS
12HR VT     01/0000Z 21.2N 154.5W    40 KTS
24HR VT     01/1200Z 21.6N 156.4W    35 KTS
36HR VT     02/0000Z 22.0N 158.5W    35 KTS
48HR VT     02/1200Z 22.5N 161.1W    35 KTS
72HR VT     03/1200Z 24.5N 166.8W    35 KTS