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WTPA41 PHFO 310900
TCDCP1
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
11 PM HST SUN JUL 30 2000
 
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
MAUI COUNTY AND FOR THE ISLAND OF HAWAII AND IS ISSUED FOR OAHU...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF HONOLULU...EFFECTIVE AT 11 AM HST...
 
...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KAUAI...

DANIEL IS NOW DISPLAYING A MARKED SHEARING TREND WITH THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION NOW EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REMAINING COLD CLOUD
COVER. DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT HAS DECREASED IN
THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR CONTINUED SLOW
WEAKENING...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL...AS IT MOVES
PAST THE ISLANDS. IF THE SHEARING CONTINUES DANIEL COULD EVENTUALLY
TAKE A MORE DUE WEST COURSE BUT FOR NOW REMAINS ON A WEST NORTHWEST
TRACK WITH ITS CENTER PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE FORECAST TRACKS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE
ALWAYS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS SUBTLE INFLUENCES CHANGE THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE STORM. THEREFORE MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI AND
OAHU REMAIN UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND KAUAI REMAINS UNDER A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH. 
 
RESIDENTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF DANIEL. DANIEL COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IF IT
MOVES ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
 
LARSON
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/0900Z 21.2N 152.9W    50 KTS
12HR VT     31/1800Z 21.5N 154.3W    45 KTS
24HR VT     01/0600Z 21.8N 156.2W    40 KTS
36HR VT     01/1800Z 22.1N 158.7W    35 KTS
48HR VT     02/0600Z 22.8N 161.4W    35 KTS
72HR VT     03/0600Z 24.4N 166.9W    35 KTS