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WTPA41 PHFO 310300
TCDCP1
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
5 PM HST SUN JUL 30 2000
 
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
MAUI COUNTY AND FOR THE ISLAND OF HAWAII AND IS ISSUED FOR OAHU...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF HONOLULU...EFFECTIVE AT 11 AM HST...
 
...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KAUAI...
 
SATELLITE FIXES AND RECONNAISSANCE SHOW THAT DANIEL HAS STRENGTHENED
SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TAKEN A JOG TO THE RIGHT. THE MORE
NORTHWESTWARD COURSE IS LIKELY DUE TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER...PULLING THE STORM
NORTHWARD AND ALLOWING A GREATER INFLUENCE FROM UPPER LEVEL WINDS
WITH A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. RECONNAISSANCE ALSO INDICATED THAT THE
EYE HAD REFORMED AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION NOW
COVERING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ONCE AGAIN. 

THIS STRENGTHENING MAY ONLY BE TEMPORARY...BUT THE NORTHWARD JOG OF
THE SYSTEM WILL NOW RESULT IN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...TAKING THE
STORM JUST NORTH OF ALL THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AS SHOULD ALWAYS BE
BORN IN MIND WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS...FORECAST TRACKS ARE ALWAYS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS SUBTLE INFLUENCES CHANGE THE CHARACTERISTICS OF
THE STORM. THUS MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI AND OAHU REMAIN UNDER A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND KAUAI REMAINS UNDER A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH. THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII HAS BEEN CLEARED OF ALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS AS DANIEL IS NOW ON A TRACK THAT WILL TAKE IT TOO FAR TO
THE NORTH OF THIS ISLAND. THIS MODIFIED TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE
ENSEMBLE FORECAST TRACK OF SEVERAL MODELS AND IS NOW NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUSLY FOLLOWED GFDL-AVIATION MODEL TRACK.

AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO LOSE STRENGTH
GRADUALLY PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. ONCE IT IS WEST OF KAUAI...
DANIEL WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THAT AREA.
 
RESIDENTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF DANIEL. DANIEL COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IF IT
MOVES ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
 
FARRELL
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/0300Z 20.9N 152.1W    55 KTS
12HR VT     31/1200Z 21.1N 153.5W    50 KTS
24HR VT     01/0000Z 21.5N 155.5W    50 KTS
36HR VT     01/1200Z 21.9N 157.8W    45 KTS
48HR VT     02/0000Z 22.4N 160.2W    45 KTS
72HR VT     03/0000Z 23.4N 164.6W    50 KTS