WTPA41 PHFO 302100
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
11 AM HST SUN JUL 30 2000
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
MAUI COUNTY AND FOR THE ISLAND OF HAWAII AND IS ISSUED FOR OAHU...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF HONOLULU...EFFECTIVE AT 11 AM HST...
...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KAUAI...
SATELLITE FIXES FROM HONOLULU AND SAB AND THE AIRCRAFT RECON FIX ARE
VERY CLOSE TOGETHER...PUTTING DANIEL AT 20.6N 151.0W AT 18Z. THIS
CONTINUES DANIEL ON A 295 DEGREE TRACK OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
OF DANIEL IS JUST WEST OF THE TIGHT GROUPING. TRMM DATA AT 0915Z WAS
ALSO IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH EARLIER RECON FIXES. OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS...DANIEL HAS MOVED TO THE WEST NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12
KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HOWEVER APPEARS TO BE TURNING SLOWLY BACK TOWARDS
THE WEST AT 285 DEGREES IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE 50 KT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS AGREE WITH BOTH HONOLULU AND SAB DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
QUADRANTS CLOSE TO THE CENTER.
DANIEL IS KEPT ON A WEST NORTHWEST TRACK THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS
WITH ADDITIONAL WEAKENING EXPECTED. THE FORECAST THEN TURNS DANIEL
TO THE WEST AS THE WEAKER SYSTEM MOVES MORE IN LINE WITH THE TRADE
WINDS. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR DANIEL TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES OVER WARMER WATER AND TO TURN BACK TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST. AGAIN...THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE NWS AND NAVY
GFDL MODELS AND SOUTH OF THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS.
RESIDENTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF DANIEL. DANIEL COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IF IT
MOVES ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
FORECAST CRAIG
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/2100Z 20.7N 151.6W 50 KTS
12HR VT 31/0600Z 21.1N 153.5W 45 KTS
24HR VT 31/1800Z 21.3N 156.0W 40 KTS
36HR VT 01/0600Z 21.4N 158.4W 35 KTS
48HR VT 01/1800Z 21.7N 160.8W 35 KTS
72HR VT 02/1800Z 22.8N 165.6W 45 KTS
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