HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

WTPA41 PHFO 301500
TCDCP1
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
5 AM HST SUN JUL 30 2000
 
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
MAUI COUNTY AND FOR THE ISLAND OF HAWAII...
 
...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OAHU AND KAUAI...
 
AS WAS THE CASE 6 HOURS AGO...THE SATELLITE FIXES FROM HONOLULU AND
SAB AND THE AIRCRAFT RECON FIX ARE CLOSE TOGETHER. THE 1ZZ POSITION
OF DANIEL IS JUST WEST OF THE TIGHT GROUPING. TRMM DATA AT 0915Z WAS
ALSO IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH EARLIER RECON FIXES. OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS...DANIEL HAS MOVED TO THE WEST NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12
KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HOWEVER APPEARS TO BE TURNING SLOWLY BACK TOWARDS
THE WEST AT 285 DEGREES IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE 50 KT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS AGREE WITH BOTH HONOLULU AND SAB ESTIMATES. DEEP
CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH QUADRANTS CLOSE TO
THE CENTER.
 
DANIEL IS KEPT ON A WEST NORTHWEST TRACK THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS
WITH ADDITIONAL WEAKENING FORECAST. THE FORECAST THEN TURNS DANIEL
TO THE WEST AS THE WEAKER SYSTEM MOVES MORE IN LINE WITH THE TRADE
WINDS. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR DANIEL TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES OVER WARMER WATER. AGAIN...THE FORECAST TRACK
IS CLOSE TO THE NWS AND NAVY GFDL OBJECTIVE AIDES AND SOUTH OF THE
BETA ADVECTION MODELS.
 
RESIDENTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF DANIEL. DANIEL COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IT IT
MOVES ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
 
FORECAST CRAIG
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/1500Z 20.4N 150.8W    50 KTS
12HR VT     31/0000Z 20.8N 152.9W    45 KTS
24HR VT     31/1200Z 21.0N 155.3W    40 KTS
36HR VT     01/0000Z 21.2N 157.7W    35 KTS
48HR VT     01/1200Z 21.4N 160.0W    35 KTS
72HR VT     02/1200Z 22.6N 165.3W    45 KTS