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WTPA41 PHFO 300730
TCDCP1
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
11 PM HST SAT JUL 29 2000

...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF MAUI
COUNTY AND FOR THE ISLAND OF HAWAII...

...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OAHU AND KAUAI...

THE 06Z POSITION AGREES WITH BOTH THE HONOLULU AND SAB SATELLITE
FIXES AND WITH THE LATEST AIRCRAFT RECON FIX. DANIEL HAS BEEN ON A
WEST NORTHWEST TRACK THE LAST 12 HOURS PROBABLY BECAUSE OF A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS FROM SAB AND HONOLULU
RESPECTIVELY. A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB ESTIMATED BY THE RECON
FLIGHT ALSO INDICATES 55 KNOT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS. DEEP
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
QUADRANTS CLOSE TO THE CENTER.

DANIEL IS KEPT ON A WEST NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING EXPECTED. THE FORECAST THEN CALLS FOR DANIEL TO
TURN TO THE WEST AS THE WEAKER SYSTEM IS INCREASINGLY STEERED BY THE
TRADE WINDS. THE FORECAST MOVEMENT FROM 48 HOURS ONWARD SHOWS SOME
ACCELERATION AS DANIEL MOVES SOUTH OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE TRACK IS CLOSEST TO THE NWS AND NAVY NOGAP AIDES AND IS SIMILAR
TO THE LAST FORECAST TRACK.

RESIDENTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF DANIEL. DANIEL COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IT IT
MOVES ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

FORECAST CRAIG
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/0900Z 20.0N 149.2W    55 KTS
12HR VT     30/1800Z 20.5N 150.8W    45 KTS
24HR VT     31/0600Z 20.8N 152.9W    40 KTS
36HR VT     31/1800Z 21.0N 155.0W    35 KTS
48HR VT     01/0600Z 21.2N 158.1W    35 KTS
72HR VT     02/0600Z 21.7N 164.8W    30 KTS