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HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
5 PM HST SAT JUL 29 2000
 
...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMIANS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS
   OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...
 
THE FIRST AIRCRAFT RECON ON DANIEL FOUND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 995
MB AND ESTIMATED MAX SURFACE WINDS AT 55 KT. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55 TO 65 KT. DANIEL IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A
TROPICAL STORM ON THE 5 PM ADVISORY. THE DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE
CENTER CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE AND IS NOW MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE NORTH
QUADRANT. THE FORECAST IS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING AS DANIEL MOVES
WEST TOWARDS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING UPPER
SHEAR.  

DANIEL HAS TAKEN A MORE WEST NORTHWEST MOTION DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS BUT SHOULD RETURN TO A MORE WEST TRACK AFTER 24 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM BECOMES MORE SHALLOW AND IS LESS AFFECTED BY UPPER WINDS. THE
TRACK IS INITIALLY BASED ON PERSISTENCE BUT LATER IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE GFDL AND BAM SHALLOW.

RESIDENTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANIEL. DANIEL COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
IF IT MOVES ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
 
FORECASTER LARSON
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/0300Z 19.5N 148.4W    60 KTS
12HR VT     30/1200Z 20.1N 150.1W    50 KTS
24HR VT     31/0000Z 20.5N 152.3W    45 KTS
36HR VT     31/1200Z 20.7N 154.9W    40 KTS
48HR VT     01/0000Z 20.9N 157.7W    35 KTS
72HR VT     02/0000Z 21.7N 163.7W    30 KTS
 
 
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