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WTPA41 PHFO 292100
TCDCP1
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
11 AM HST SAT JUL 29 2000
 
...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT AT 11 AM HST FOR THE ISLANDS
   OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...

SOME DEEP CONVECTION...THUNDERSTORMS...HAVE REDEVELOPED AROUND THE
CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 3.5 AND 4.0 FROM SAB AND HONOLULU AND THEREFORE DANIEL
HAS BEEN KEPT AT 65 KT. THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA DID NOT
CONFIRM THE PRESENCE OF A CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE FIRST AIRCRAFT
RECONAISSANCE SCHEDULED FOR 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY
PROVIDE ANSWERS ABOUT BOTH THE CIRCULATION AND ITS STRENGTH. THE 
FORECAST TREND IS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIP
MODEL AS DANIEL MOVES TOWARDS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE TRACK
REMAINS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST ACROSS THE ISLANDS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GFDL MODEL. 
 
RESIDENTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANIEL. DANIEL COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
IF IT MOVES ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. 
 
FORECASTER LARSON
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/2100Z 19.0N 147.4W    65 KTS
12HR VT     30/0600Z 19.4N 149.8W    55 KTS
24HR VT     30/1800Z 20.0N 152.7W    45 KTS
36HR VT     31/0600Z 20.6N 155.4W    40 KTS
48HR VT     31/1800Z 21.2N 158.1W    40 KTS
72HR VT     01/1800Z 22.2N 162.6W    35 KTS