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HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI JUL 28 2000
 
DANIEL IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AGAIN AS THE EYE HAS BECOME
MORE RAGGED. HOWEVER...COLD TOPS HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED IN THE
SOUTHERN EYEWALL. AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ONLY TAKEN
DOWN TO 100 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 95 TO 110
KT FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL
QUADRANTS AND THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE
RELAXED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE INITIAL
MOTION IS 285/17 BASED ON THE PAST 12 HOURS TREND. DANIEL HAS GAINED
SOME LATITUDE OWING TO SOME WEAK SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH WHICH ACTED TO WEAKEN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE
TROUGH IS NOW ALONG 135W AND WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF DANIEL. THE
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH APPEARS TO BE FILLING BACK
IN SINCE THE SHORT TERM MOTION OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS HAS BEEN CLOSER
TO 275-280 DEGREES. WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE GFDL MODEL CLOSELY AND ARE
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF OUR FORECAST MODEL ENVELOPE.

DANIEL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WE ARE
CLOSE TO SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...WITH GOOD MOIST UNSTABLE
SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW WELL-ESTABLISHED AND THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR
DECREASING...THE INNER CORE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
FLUCTUATE WITH SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLY OCCURRING DURING
THE LOCAL NIGHTTIME CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD.

RESIDENTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DANIEL DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE HURRICANE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY LATER TODAY.
 
FORECASTER STEWART/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/1500Z 17.4N 139.1W   100 KTS
12HR VT     29/0000Z 17.8N 141.4W    95 KTS
24HR VT     29/1200Z 18.3N 144.4W    90 KTS
36HR VT     30/0000Z 18.9N 147.0W    85 KTS
48HR VT     30/1200Z 19.5N 149.5W    75 KTS
72HR VT     31/1200Z 21.0N 154.0W    70 KTS
 
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