HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU JUL 27 2000
 
THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT AND INNER CORE CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE
COOLED SUGGESTING THAT DANIEL HAS RE-INTENSIFIED. THE OFFICAL
INTENSITY OF 95 KT IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
5.0...90 KT...FROM SAB AND KGWC AND 5.5...100 KT...FROM TAFB. DANIEL
IS NOT BEING TAKEN BACK UP TO CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY
DUE TO THE EYE BEING OVER COOLER THAN NORMAL SSTS FOR A MAJOR
HURRICANE...WHICH SHOULD MAKE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MORE STABLE AND
KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. THE OUTFLOW
PATTERN REMAINS IMPRESSIVE AND THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS
SYMMETRICAL. 

THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR
REASONING. INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 275/15 BASED ON THE PAST 12 HOURS
TREND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FLATTENED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES HAVE
BEEN SHIFTING WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH DANIEL. THE GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE THAT TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE LATEST UKMET RUN IS
FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS WITH A MORE WESTWARD TRACK
INDICATED AFTER 48 HOURS. THERE IS ALSO MORE CONVERGENCE IN THE
FORECAST MODELS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FOUR RUNS AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MODEL SUITE...WHILE
MAINTAINING A STEADY 15 KT SPEED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS MEANS THAT
DANIEL COULD POSE A THREAT TO THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII SOMETIME ON
MONDAY.

A 1430Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATES THAT MOST OF THE INFLOW IS FROM
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH MOST OF THE COOLER MORE STABLE AIR TO
THE NORTH BEING SHUNTED AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF DANIEL. THIS INFLOW
PATTERN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DECAYS DANIEL MORE SLOWLY THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.

FORECASTER STEWART/FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/2100Z 16.1N 134.0W    95 KTS
12HR VT     28/0600Z 16.3N 136.3W    95 KTS
24HR VT     28/1800Z 16.7N 139.4W    90 KTS
36HR VT     29/0600Z 17.1N 142.5W    80 KTS
48HR VT     29/1800Z 17.7N 145.7W    75 KTS
72HR VT     30/1800Z 19.0N 151.5W    70 KTS

NNNN