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HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU JUL 27 2000

LATEST INFRARED IMAGES SHOW THE EYE BECOMING LESS WELL-DEFINED AND
THIS IS CONFIRMED IN A RECENT SSM/I IMAGE.  CENTRAL COLD CONVECTION
IS SLOWLY DIMINISHING...AS ARE DVORAK T-NUMBERS.  CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS 95 KNOTS.  UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS ANALYSES
SUGGEST SOME INCREASE IN SHEAR AHEAD OF DANIEL DUE TO A HIGH-LEVEL
TROUGH NEAR 140W...BUT GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT THIS
TROUGH WILL SHIFT WEST AND WEAKEN.  ONLY SLOW WEAKENING OF DANIEL IS
FORECAST...AND THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINED AS A HURRICANE THROUGH 72
HOURS. 

MOTION CONTINUES STEADILY WESTWARD NEAR 15 KNOTS.  A WELL-
ESTABLISHED MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THEREFORE A WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST...AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THAT FROM THE GFDL
MODEL...WHICH HAS BEEN DOING A REASONABLE JOB WITH DANIEL THUS FAR.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0900Z 15.8N 130.9W    95 KTS
12HR VT     27/1800Z 16.0N 133.2W    90 KTS
24HR VT     28/0600Z 16.4N 136.1W    85 KTS
36HR VT     28/1800Z 17.0N 139.0W    75 KTS
48HR VT     29/0600Z 17.5N 142.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     30/0600Z 19.0N 147.5W    65 KTS
 
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