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HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED JUL 26 2000
 
DANIEL HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH THE EYE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER DEFINED.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM AFWA...TAFB...AND SAB ARE 115
KT...102 KT...AND 102 KT RESPECTIVELY. THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN AT
105 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

DANIEL HAS WOBBLED WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/15.  THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS STRONG
TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE...WITH SHOULD CONTINUE IT ON A WEST TO
NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HR.  A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION COULD OCCUR
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IF A TROUGH DEVELOPING NORTHEAST
OF HAWAII WEAKENS THE RIDGE ENOUGH.  TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A 280/290 DEGREE MOTION...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS. 
 
THERE IS NO CHANGE TO EITHER THE REASONING BEHIND THE PREVIOUS
INTENSITY FORECAST OR THE FORECAST ITSELF.  DANIEL CONTINUES MOVING
ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE 26C ISOTHERM IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. 
THIS SHOULD ALLOW ONLY A SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/2100Z 15.6N 127.7W   105 KTS
12HR VT     27/0600Z 15.9N 129.8W   100 KTS
24HR VT     27/1800Z 16.6N 132.7W    95 KTS
36HR VT     28/0600Z 17.1N 135.8W    90 KTS
48HR VT     28/1800Z 17.5N 139.0W    85 KTS
72HR VT     29/1800Z 18.5N 145.0W    75 KTS
 
 
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