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HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE JUL 25 2000
 
DANIEL CONTINUES TO BE A CLASSICALLY ORGANIZED...ALTHOUGH SMALL...
HURRICANE WITH A 15 NM WIDE EYE.  A WELL-DEFINED BAND WAS WRAPPED
AROUND THE WEST SEMICIRCLE EARLIER...BUT IS WEAKENING NOW. 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...AFWA...AND SAB ARE 110
KT...110 KT...AND 102 KT.  THUS THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE INCREASED TO
110 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/16.  A STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE
NORTH SHOULD CONTINUE DANIEL ON A GENERALLY WEST TRACK THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AS INDICATED BY BOTH LARGE SCALE AND NHC TRACK
GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...EXCEPT FOR CALLING FOR A FASTER FORWARD SPEED LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

DANIEL IS MOVING INTO COOLER WATER AND MAY BE PEAKING IN INTENSITY.
FORECAST TRACKS TAKES THE HURRICANE OVER 26C-27C WATER FOR THE NEXT
72 HR.  SINCE A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 15N SHOULD KEEP
THE VERTICAL SHEAR LIGHT...ONLY A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY.  THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  HOWEVER...ANY NORTHWARD
TURN WOULD CAUSE DANIEL TO WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/2100Z 14.4N 121.9W   110 KTS
12HR VT     26/0600Z 14.7N 124.2W   110 KTS
24HR VT     26/1800Z 15.0N 127.3W   110 KTS
36HR VT     27/0600Z 15.3N 130.2W   105 KTS
48HR VT     27/1800Z 15.5N 133.0W   100 KTS
72HR VT     28/1800Z 16.0N 138.0W    90 KTS
 
 
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