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HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON JUL 24 2000
 
DANIEL CONTINUES TO BECOME ORGANIZED AND HAS NOW REACHED HURRICANE
INTENSITY BASED ON AN EYE FEATURE IN 0835Z TRMM IMAGERY AND A
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 65 KT FROM SAB. A SMALL CDO APPEARS
TO HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST 2 HOURS WITH A COLD OVERSHOOTING
TOP OF -80C NEAR THE CENTER. OUTFLOW IS GOOD AND IMPROVING IN ALL
QUADRANTS WHILE THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE
CIRCULAR AND SYMMETRIC. 

INITIAL MOTION IS 285/15. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE FORECAST
MODELS IS WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 24 WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE WEST AFTERWARDS. THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING
WELL AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THOSE MODELS
AND MORE TO THE RIGHT OF OUR PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY
POLEWARD MOTION NORTH OF 15N LATITUDE.
 
DANIEL APPEARS TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND WE HAVE FOLLOWED THAT
TREND FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WOULD BRING THE HURRICANE TO
CATEGORY 3 INTENSITY BY TOMORROW. THE SHIPS MODEL ONLY BRINGS DANIEL
TO 90 KT IN 36 HOURS AND THEN LEVELS IT OFF AT 95 KT AFTERWARDS.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST NAVY OCEANOGRAPHIC CENTER SST ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE 28C ISOTHERM EXTENDS FURTHER WEST...TO 120W...THAN THE
NCEP SST ANALYSIS USED IN THE SHIPS MODELS.

FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/1500Z 12.4N 113.0W    65 KTS
12HR VT     25/0000Z 13.0N 115.3W    80 KTS
24HR VT     25/1200Z 13.6N 118.0W   100 KTS
36HR VT     26/0000Z 14.1N 120.8W   105 KTS
48HR VT     26/1200Z 14.5N 123.5W    95 KTS
72HR VT     27/1200Z 14.5N 128.0W    90 KTS
 
 
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