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TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN JUL 23 2000
 
THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS UPGRADED
TO TROPICAL STORM DANIEL.  THE CENTER IS NEAR OR UNDER THE
CONVECTIVE OVERCAST AND A BAND WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH.

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 35
KT...30 KT...AND 30 KT RESPECTIVELY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/16. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN EITHER
FORECAST REASONING OR THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA WEST OF DANIEL SHOULD GRADUALLY
FILL AND BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE STORM TO
FOLLOW A WEST TO JUST NORTH OF WEST MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKY.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.  THE BIG PROBLEM IS EXACTLY WHERE
THE STORM TRACKS IN RELATION TO COOLER WATER.  A LITTLE MORE
NORTHWARD TRACK...AS SHOWN BY LBAR...WOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION
AFTER 48 HR AS SHOWN BY SHIPS.  A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...AS SHOWN BY
BAMD AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WOULD ALLOW MORE TIME OVER WARMER
WATER AND MORE STRENGTHENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE POSSIBILITIES FROM THE VARIOUS FORECAST
TRACKS.  IT IS NOTABLE THAT DANIEL IS A RELATIVELY SMALL SYSTEM...
AND THUS IT MIGHT INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AFTER BECOMING A HURRICANE.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/2100Z 10.9N 108.4W    35 KTS
12HR VT     24/0600Z 11.3N 110.7W    45 KTS
24HR VT     24/1800Z 11.7N 113.6W    55 KTS
36HR VT     25/0600Z 12.0N 116.7W    65 KTS
48HR VT     25/1800Z 12.0N 119.5W    75 KTS
72HR VT     26/1800Z 12.0N 125.5W    90 KTS
 
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