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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN JUL 23 2000
 
FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE
DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 KT...WHICH ARE THE MAXIMUM WINDS FOR THIS
ADVISORY. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/16. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A BROAD DEEP-LAYER CIRCULATION WEST OF THE
DEPRESSION...WHICH THE LARGE SCALE MODELS SUGGEST WILL FILL WITH
TIME AND BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE. THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW A WEST-
NORTHWEST OR JUST NORTH OF WEST MOTION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
FORECAST...FOLLOWED BY A MORE WESTERLY MOTION. NHC HURRICANE
GUIDANCE DOES NOT REALLY SHOW THIS. THE BAM MODELS ALL CALL FOR A
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST MOTION...WHILE THE LBAR...P9UK...AND P91E ALL
CALL FOR A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
SCENARIO FROM THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE.

INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS COLD CLOUD TOPS TO -80C ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPRESSION...AND THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
TO THE EAST. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING...WITH THE CYCLONE EMBEDDED IN DEEP-LAYER EASTERLIES.
THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO 76 KT IN 48 HR...BUT THEN SHOWS
LITTLE FURTHER STRENGTHENING AS IT USES SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FROM THE LBAR TRACK INTO COOLER WATER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR MORE INTENSIFICATION...AS THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE CYCLONE
OVER WARMER WATER THAN USED IN THIS SHIPS RUN. 
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/1500Z 10.7N 106.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     24/0000Z 10.9N 109.2W    35 KTS
24HR VT     24/1200Z 11.2N 112.2W    45 KTS
36HR VT     25/0000Z 11.5N 115.5W    55 KTS
48HR VT     25/1200Z 11.5N 118.5W    65 KTS
72HR VT     26/1200Z 11.5N 124.5W    90 KTS
 
 
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