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HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU JUN 22 2000
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING TODAY.  THE MOST
RECENT ONES ARE 102 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 00Z.  SINCE THEN...COLD
TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO ERODE AND THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT. 
THEREFORE WE WILL HOLD THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 95 KT.  CARLOTTA IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATER AND FUTURE FLUCTUATIONS SHOULD
BE EXCLUSIVELY DOWNWARD.

THE FORWARD MOTION HAS INCREASED A BIT...AND IS 305/10 OVER THE LAST
12 HOURS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRONGER SYSTEM PASSING VERY CLOSE
TO SOCORRO DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THE UKMET AND AVN DIFFER
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF
CARLOTTA...WITH THE UKMET ERODING THE RIDGE AND THE AVN BUILDING IT.
IF THE UKMET FORECAST VERIFIES...CARLOTTA COULD COME WITHIN ABOUT
100-150 MILES OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.  SCATTEROMETER DATA
INDICATE THAT CARLOTTA REMAINS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND WITH
THE ANTICIPATED WEAKENING A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOT CONSIDERED
NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0300Z 18.2N 109.2W    95 KTS
12HR VT     23/1200Z 19.1N 110.5W    85 KTS
24HR VT     24/0000Z 20.6N 111.9W    70 KTS
36HR VT     24/1200Z 22.1N 113.3W    60 KTS
48HR VT     25/0000Z 23.5N 114.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     26/0000Z 25.0N 117.0W    30 KTS
 
 
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