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HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU JUN 22 2000
 
SATELLITE IMAGES AND TRMM SENSOR DATA SHOW THAT THE EYE OF CARLOTTA
HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND IS SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY DEEP
CONVECTION. IN FACT...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN LOOKS BETTER THAN 6
HOURS AGO. BECAUSE THE T-NUMBERS ARE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THIS
MORNING...THE WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 100 KNOTS.  SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TODAY BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS
TOWARD WEAKENING AS CARLOTTA MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.   

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 7 KNOTS
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER MEXICO.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THAT THE STRUCTURE
AND LOCATION OF THIS HIGH WILL NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE
...CARLOTTA SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE SAME TRACK THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  ONLY THE GFDL AND THE GFDN SHOW A TRACK MORE TO
THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO BAJA CALIFORNIA.

ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MOVES THE CORE OF CARLOTTA FAR ENOUGH
FROM SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
FORECAST...ALL INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
CARLOTTA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.    
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/1500Z 16.9N 107.4W   100 KTS
12HR VT     23/0000Z 17.4N 108.4W    90 KTS
24HR VT     23/1200Z 18.3N 109.8W    80 KTS
36HR VT     24/0000Z 19.5N 111.5W    70 KTS
48HR VT     24/1200Z 21.0N 113.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     25/1200Z 23.0N 117.5W    40 KTS
 
 
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