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HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU JUN 22 2000
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 290/07.  MOST ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72
HOURS WITH SOME ACCELERATION OF FORWARD SPEED AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OVER MEXICO.  THE GFDN AND UKMET HAVE SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THEIR PREVIOUS TRACKS AS THE HURRICANE
APPROACHES A TROUGH JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WEAKEN THE HURRICANE TO 100 KNOTS BY 06Z
AND THE SHIFOR MODEL DROPS THE WIND SPEED TO 37 KNOTS BY 72 HOURS AS
THE FORECAST TRACK MOVES OVER COLDER WATER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
BASICALLY FOLLOWS THE SHIFOR MODEL.
 
THE 34-KNOT RADII ARE DECREASED SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
BASED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA.  THE RADIUS OF 12 FT SEAS ARE ALSO
DECREASED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT BASED ON A SHIP REPORT NEAR THE
COAST OF MEXICO.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0900Z 16.4N 107.0W    95 KTS
12HR VT     22/1800Z 16.9N 108.1W    85 KTS
24HR VT     23/0600Z 17.5N 109.5W    70 KTS
36HR VT     23/1800Z 18.0N 111.5W    60 KTS
48HR VT     24/0600Z 20.0N 113.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     25/0600Z 22.5N 117.5W    40 KTS
  
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