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HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED JUN 21 2000
 
THE EYE IS BECOMING A LITTLE HARDER TO FOLLOW...AND THE SYSTEM IS
FIGHTING SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
HAD FALLEN TO 115 KT AT 00Z...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT
110 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR MAY LESSEN A BIT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE COOLER WATERS THAT WILL BE ENCOUNTERED BY
THEN WILL DOMINATE AND WEAKEN THE CYCLONE.

THE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED A BIT AND IS NOW 290/7.  THE UKMET
HINTS AT A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF CARLOTTA...ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RE-STRENGTHEN
OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS MORE CLOSELY
CLUSTERED THIS EVENING...WITH THE NAVY AND AVN-BASED GFDLS STARTING
TO COME IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF...AND SLOWER THAN...THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
SHIP DGOS...190 NM NORTHEAST OF CARLOTTA...REPORTED 34 KT WINDS AT
00Z.  THIS SHIP WAS IN OR NEAR A CONVECTIVE CELL AND I AM NOT QUITE
READY TO ACCEPT THIS OB AS REPRESENTATIVE...WHICH IF TRUE WOULD
PLACE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 20 MILES OFFSHORE.  HOWEVER...HIGH
WAVES AND BANDS OF HEAVY RAINS FROM THE PERIPHERY OF CARLOTTA ARE
STILL AFFECTING A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST.  THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0300Z 16.0N 106.4W   110 KTS
12HR VT     22/1200Z 16.4N 107.4W   105 KTS
24HR VT     23/0000Z 17.1N 109.1W    95 KTS
36HR VT     23/1200Z 18.1N 111.1W    85 KTS
48HR VT     24/0000Z 19.5N 113.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     25/0000Z 21.5N 117.0W    45 KTS
 
 
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