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HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED JUN 21 2000
 
THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WHILE ITS
SURROUNDING RING OF CONVECTION IS WARMING AND ERODING. CONSEQUENTLY
ALL T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 125 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.  ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND AS CARLOTTA APPROACHES
COOLER WATERS. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY ALL AVAILABLE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE.

CARLOTTA HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST...AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF A WARM HIGH OVER MEXICO WHICH IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.  THIS GENERAL TRACK IS
INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.   ONCE AGAIN...THE GFDL 
1200Z RUN SHARPLY TURNS CARLOTTA NORTHWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA
BUT THAT IS NOT THE CASE WITH THE GFDN...WHICH RUNS OFF THE NOGAPS
ANALYSIS.  THE LATTER SUGGESTS A TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST BUT STILL TO
THE NORTH OF THE OTHER MODELS.  
 
HIGH WAVES AND BANDS OF HEAVY RAINS FROM THE PERIPHERY OF CARLOTTA
ARE STILL AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/2100Z 15.8N 105.6W   125 KTS
12HR VT     22/0600Z 16.0N 106.7W   115 KTS
24HR VT     22/1800Z 16.5N 108.2W   105 KTS
36HR VT     23/0600Z 17.0N 110.0W    95 KTS
48HR VT     23/1800Z 18.0N 112.0W    75 KTS
72HR VT     24/1800Z 20.5N 117.0W    55 KTS
 
 
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