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HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE JUN 20 2000

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST ENTERED THE EYE OF THE
HURRICANE AND MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 977 MB AND MAX FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS OF 87 KT. THEREFORE...INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED DOWN ACCORDINGLY. EYE DIAMETER IS NOW 17-18 NM AND OPEN TO
THE SOUTHWEST. OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND
IMPROVING TO THE NORTH.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/08 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE LARGE RIDGE
OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO CHANGE
LITTLE. THE GFDL MODEL REMAINS THE LONE OUTLIER WHEREAS THE UKMET
AND OUR OTHER GUIDANCE MODELS TAKE CARLOTTA ON A GENERAL WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE 12Z UKMET RUN.

SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS WELL
ORGANIZED AND BANDING FEATURES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. THIS SUGGESTS
THAT CARLOTTA COULD STILL INTENSIFY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE
APPROACHING COOLER WATER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE TREND INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.
 
FORECASTER STEWART/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/2100Z 15.0N 102.6W    85 KTS
12HR VT     21/0600Z 15.2N 103.9W    95 KTS
24HR VT     21/1800Z 15.7N 105.4W   100 KTS
36HR VT     22/0600Z 16.2N 106.8W    90 KTS
48HR VT     22/1800Z 17.0N 109.0W    80 KTS
72HR VT     23/1800Z 19.0N 113.0W    70 KTS

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