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HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE JUN 20 2000
 
CARLOTTA HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY AND NOW HAS A 6-7 NM
DIAMETER EYE AS INDICATED BY A 1055Z TRMM DATA. DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB HAS INCREASED TO 5.0 ON THE DVORAK
SCALE. OUTFLOW REMAINS IMPRESSIVE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT
ONLY FAIR TO THE NORTH.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR
DATA INDICATE A LARGE HIGH MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH/RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
CARLOTTA. THE AVN AND GFDL MODELS ERODE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SPURIOUS LOWS ROTATING AROUND THE
EAST SIDE OF CARLOTTA. THEREFORE...WE HAVE GIVEN LESS WEIGHT TO
THOSE MODELS. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS HAVE HANDLED THIS SYSTEM
QUITE WELL OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE UKMET
CLOSELY...ALBEIT A LITTLE FASTER. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PRESENCE OF A STRONG AND PERSISTENT WARM HIGH OVER MEXICO.  
THE INNER CORE CONVECTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND THE
HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOR
ANOTHER 12-24 HOURS AND THEN LEVEL OFF AFTER THAT. THE SHIPS MODEL
IS FORECASTING 105 KT IN 24 HOURS WHICH IS NOT UNREASONABLE. AFTER
36 HOURS...CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER COOLER WATER LEFT IN
THE WAKE OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM BUD. AS A RESULT...STEADY
WEAKENING IS FORECAST BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/1500Z 14.8N 102.0W    90 KTS
12HR VT     21/0000Z 15.2N 103.7W    95 KTS
24HR VT     21/1200Z 15.8N 105.7W   100 KTS
36HR VT     22/0000Z 16.4N 107.5W   100 KTS
48HR VT     22/1200Z 17.0N 109.0W    90 KTS
72HR VT     23/1200Z 18.5N 112.0W    70 KTS
  
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