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HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON JUN 19 2000
 
THE BEGINNINGS OF AN EYE COULD BE SEEN ON THE LAST FEW VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES...AND A WARM SPOT HAS BEEN GENERALLY PRESENT ON IR
IMAGERY SINCE THEN.  DEEP CONVECTION DECREASED MARKEDLY IN AREAL
COVERAGE SINCE THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAS STABILIZED OF LATE.  OUTFLOW
IS EXCELLENT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST BUT LIMITED TO THE NORTH. 
SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A UNANIMOUS 65 KT.

THE FORWARD SPEED FLUCTUATED SOME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A
REPRESENTATIVE CURRENT MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/11.  THIS MORE
WESTWARD TRACK IS LESSENING THE THREAT TO MEXICO...AND RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOTTA IS MOSTLY OFFSHORE.  THE UKMET GLOBAL MODEL
SHOWS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  ALL THE NORMALLY RELIABLE
GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...KEEPS THE HURRICANE
SAFELY OFFSHORE.  THE GFDL INDICATES A TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST
BUT IT HAS NOT BEEN A GOOD PERFORMER ON THIS STORM SO FAR.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

CARLOTTA HAS STRENGTHENED 30 KT IN 24 HOURS...AND THE SHIPS MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AT
NEARLY THIS PACE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS.  WITH A CONVECTIVE PATTERN
LESS VIGOROUS THAN 24 HOURS AGO...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THIS PACE
CAN BE MAINTAINED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE SHIPS MODEL.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/0300Z 14.4N  99.7W    65 KTS
12HR VT     20/1200Z 14.6N 101.4W    70 KTS
24HR VT     21/0000Z 15.0N 103.3W    80 KTS
36HR VT     21/1200Z 15.5N 105.2W    85 KTS
48HR VT     22/0000Z 16.0N 107.0W    85 KTS
72HR VT     23/0000Z 17.0N 110.5W    80 KTS
 
 
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