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TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON JUN 19 2000
 
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA HAS STRENGTHENED AND ACCELERATED DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...BUT
CLOSER TO 16 KT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A RAGGED BANDING EYE FEATURE
HAS APPEARED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THIS IS THE JUSTIFICATION FOR
BRINGING THE INTENSITY UP TO JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.
 
CARLOTTA HAS TURNED MORE WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND NONE OF OUR
GUIDANCE MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE OVER LAND ANY LONGER. THE GFDL HAS
HAD A RIGHT OF TRACK BIAS...PROBABLY DUE TO A BOGUS LOW THE AVN
MODEL THAT DEVELOPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES SOUTHWEST OF CARLOTTA. NONE OF
THE OTHER MODELS HAVE THIS FEATURE.  THE UKMET HAS ONCE AGAIN BEEN
THE BEST PERFORMING MODEL AND WE HAVE FOLLOWED THAT SCENARIO CLOSELY
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OVER
MEXICO.
 
TAFB AND KGWC SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 3.5 AND LATEST
INFRARED IMAGES SHOW TWO WELL-DEFINED COLD OVERSHOOTING TOPS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE EYE FEATURE. THIS PATTERN OFTEN INDICATES THE
ONSET OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND WE HAVE TAKEN THE INTENSITY UP TO
90 KT IN 36 HOURS IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.
HOWEVER...100 KT IN 24 HOURS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING GIVEN THE
IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. AFTER 36 HOURS...ALL
THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY 200 MB WINDS
WHICH SHOULD INDUCE SOME SHEAR ON CARLOTTA...AND THIS IS REFLECTED
IN A GENERAL LEVELING OFF OF THE INTENSITY AT 48 HOURS.
 
ALSO...THE 34-KT WIND AND 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASED BASED ON 18Z OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIPS KAOU AND KGJD...AND A
1551Z GALE RADIUS SATELLITE ANALYSIS FROM KGWC.
 
FORECASTER STEWART/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/2100Z 14.4N  99.1W    60 KTS
12HR VT     20/0600Z 15.0N 101.0W    70 KTS
24HR VT     20/1800Z 16.0N 103.5W    80 KTS
36HR VT     21/0600Z 16.3N 105.5W    90 KTS
48HR VT     21/1800Z 16.5N 107.0W    90 KTS
72HR VT     22/1800Z 17.0N 110.0W    85 KTS

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