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TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON JUN 19 2000
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 300/11.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE
UNANIMOUSLY KEEPS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.  THE 06Z AVIATION
MODEL SHOWS A SLIGHT WEAKNESS AT 500 MB IN THE RIDGE JUST NORTH OF
THE STORM AND THE NOGAPS AND GFDL MODELS RESPOND BY BRINGING THE
CENTER RIGHT TO THE COAST WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE CENTER OFFSHORE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO REQUIRE THE HURRICANE WATCH...WHICH COULD BE
CHANGED TO A WARNING IF CARLOTTA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.

TAFB AND SAB INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 35 KNOTS DUE TO DVORAK
RESTRAINTS WHILE KGWC GIVES 55 KNOTS.  THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED
TO 50 KNOTS BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF AN IMPRESSIVE CDO AND AS A
COMPROMISE TO THE ABOVE ESTIMATES.  THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE
INTENSITY TO 87 KNOTS AT 60 HOURS WHILE THE GFDL AND NOGAPS MODELS
ARE NOT NEARLY AS STRONG.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR 80 KNOTS BY
48 HOURS. 
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/1500Z 14.1N  97.3W    50 KTS
12HR VT     20/0000Z 14.8N  98.5W    60 KTS
24HR VT     20/1200Z 15.9N 100.3W    70 KTS
36HR VT     21/0000Z 16.6N 102.1W    75 KTS
48HR VT     21/1200Z 17.2N 103.9W    80 KTS
72HR VT     22/1200Z 17.8N 107.6W    80 KTS
  
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